The Last Page

Is Infrastructure a Public Good? No, Sort Of, and What Role for the Public and Private Sectors

The federal government seeks to create a new institution for funding infrastructure investment––the Canada Infrastructure Bank (CIB). In Canada, it is governments at all levels that tend to hold the primary role in the planning, building (i.e. as sponsor), managing and financing of infrastructure. Other than in the construction phase, the private sector is a relatively niche player in the lifecycle of infrastructure assets. The CIB aims to be a catalyst for including the private sector in the other aspects of the lifecycle. The untested presumption is that service levels, externalities and competition will remain constant (at least) while risk will be transferred from the public to the private sector. However, this has rarely been the case with public-private partnerships (PPPs)––the oft-cited private-sector solution to public-sector infrastructure folly. Indeed, with the private sector owning and managing infrastructure assets, the cost of capital is likely go up.

“Where Were They Going Without Ever Knowing the Way?” Assessing the Risks and Opportunities of the Canada Infrastructure Bank

In the 2016 Fall Economic Statement, the federal government outlined the broad strokes of its soon to be established CIB. A key recommendation of the Finance Minister’s Advisory Council on Economic Growth and Prosperity, the federal government expounded further on the CIB in Budget 2017 and again, more recently, in the Budget Implementation Act (BIA). The BIA has put even more meat on the bone, although information on this one-of-a-kind crown agency still makes for some pretty thin pickings and public consultations appear to be sparse.  

CHT and the Federation: Past, Present, and Future

Over the past 30 years, health care spending in Canada has followed a pattern of peaks and troughs tied to overall economic activity and fluctuations in federal funding. Throughout this period, health spending varied significantly across provinces and territories. This has led to notable differences between actual expenditures and the notional health care costs derived from the macroeconomic fundamentals of population growth, aging, real income growth, and inflation.  

Nowcasting: Economic Forecasting Meets Just-In-Time Delivery

Along with continued advances in computing power and the availability of a broader range of data than just that provided by official sources, nowcasting has become an increasingly popular area of analysis among economists. Also known as tracking or monitoring, nowcasting refers to forecasting an economic variable in the very near term by incorporating data of varying frequencies or timeliness, as well as data from official and unofficial sources.

Fiscal Outlook and Strategy

It is mid-February. The new fiscal year starts April 1. We wait for a signal from our federal Finance Minister on a budget date. The clock ticks.